Real Madrid return from their summer break to face a Málaga side they have dominated in recent years, having won 8 of the last 10 encounters between the clubs. That head to head record, stretching back to 2016, includes a five-match sequence in which the hosts prevailed on every occasion, most recently a 3-2 win in November 2017 and a 2-1 victory in their January 2017 meeting. The two draws in that 10-match sample both came at Málaga, underlining the strength of Real Madrid's home record in this fixture.

Real Madrid closed the previous season in excellent form, registering a Formatic score of 8.67 out of 10 across their last five competitive outings. Four wins from those five matches yielded 9 goals, with clean sheets in three of them. That run included a 4-2 home win over Athletic Club, a 1-0 away victory at Sevilla and a 2-0 success against Oviedo, offset only by a 0-2 reverse at Barcelona in early May. The hosts scored in four of their last five and conceded just 4 goals across the sample, pointing to a side both sharp in attack and robust at the back as they prepare for the new campaign.

Málaga arrive in steady rather than spectacular form, their 5.56 rating built on two wins and three draws from their last five, all played in the Segunda División or pre-season. They claimed 2-1 and 1-0 wins over Las Palmas and Almeria respectively, sandwiched around a goalless home draw with Almeria and a 1-1 stalemate against Las Palmas. A recent 3-3 friendly draw with Leicester carries less weight than their competitive results, but the sequence as a whole shows a side unbeaten in five, conceding 5 and scoring 7. Clean sheets in two of those five and goals in four suggest a measure of resilience, yet the form gap of 3.11 in Real Madrid's favour is substantial, and the gulf in pedigree wider still.

The head to head profile offers Málaga little encouragement. Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings, and 5 of those 10 produced over 2.5 goals, at an average of 2.5 per game. Yet Málaga have failed to win any of those encounters, and Real Madrid's ability to edge tight matches is evident in scorelines such as 2-1 in January 2017 and 3-2 in November 2017. The most recent itemised meeting, a 1-2 away win for Real Madrid in April 2018, continued that pattern of narrow but decisive victories.

Real Madrid's attacking output of 9 goals from their last five, combined with their dominance in this fixture, suggests they hold the clear edge. Málaga's recent solidity may prevent a rout, but the home side's 8.67 form score and an unblemished record against these opponents in recent years points toward a home win. The head to head average of 2.5 goals and the frequency of both teams scoring in this fixture implies a result with goals at both ends, though Real Madrid's three clean sheets from five suggests they can control the contest if required. The value sits with the hosts, and the numbers suggest they will extend their winning run in this fixture into a new season.