Real Madrid arrive in commanding shape, their weighted form score of 8.67 out of 10 underwritten by four wins from their last five competitive outings and a goals tally that has reached nine across that stretch. The most recent of those victories, a 4-2 dispatch of Athletic Club at home on 23 May, capped a run that also featured clean sheets at Sevilla and against Oviedo, the latter a 2-0 success that demonstrated defensive solidity alongside attacking thrust. The lone blemish in that sequence was a 2-0 reverse away to Barcelona on 10 May, but that remains the only occasion in this five-match sample where Real Madrid failed to score. They have found the net in four of the five, collected three clean sheets from the same set, and conceded just four goals in total, a defensive record that sets a high bar for any opponent attempting to breach them on home territory.

Real Sociedad's preparation has been far less assured, their patchy form rating of 4.67 out of 10 reflecting a record of one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five appearances. That solitary victory came in a club friendly away to Wolves on 25 July, a 2-1 result that carries limited weight given its pre-season context. The remainder of their recent schedule is a mixture of frustration and leakage: a 1-1 draw at home to Racing Santander in another friendly on 18 July, a 0-1 home loss to PAU on 11 July, a 1-1 away draw at Espanyol in La Liga on 23 May, and a 3-4 home defeat to Valencia on 17 May in which they conceded four and surrendered a lead. Across those five fixtures, Sociedad have scored seven but conceded eight and failed to record a single clean sheet, a defensive fragility that becomes especially pronounced when set against an opponent averaging fewer than one goal conceded per match in their own recent run.

The head to head record tilts decisively in favour of the hosts, with Real Madrid claiming seven wins from the last 10 meetings between the sides, Sociedad managing just one, and two fixtures finishing level. That historical dominance aligns neatly with the current form picture, where a gap of four points separates the weighted scores and Real Madrid's attacking output of nine goals in five matches dwarfs Sociedad's more modest seven across the same sample size. The visitors have scored in four of their last five, suggesting they retain some threat going forward, but the absence of any clean sheet in that set leaves them vulnerable to a side that has kept three from five and conceded only four times in the process.

Real Madrid's combination of defensive discipline and consistent scoring, evidenced by their ability to win 1-0 at Sevilla and 2-0 at Espanyol while also putting four past Athletic Club, points to a side capable of controlling tempo and exploiting gaps when they appear. Sociedad's recent concession of four at home to Valencia and their inability to shut out even pre-season opposition suggest that containing a host team in this kind of rhythm will prove beyond them. The form gap, the goals profile and the head to head pattern all converge on a home win, and the question becomes one of margin rather than outcome, with Sociedad's persistent scoring offering the only counterweight to what the data frames as a comfortable evening for the hosts.