Real Sociedad B open their Segunda División campaign against a Castellon side whose pre-season profile suggests greater fluency in the final third. The hosts' return of just 6 goals across their last 5 outings, including a 0-1 home defeat to Eibar and a 0-2 reverse at Burgos, frames a unit that has failed to score in 50 percent of their 6-match sample this season. Castellon, meanwhile, have found the net in 4 of their last 5 fixtures, scoring 9 times despite two defeats, and their season average of 1.84 expected goals per game outstrips Real Sociedad B's 1.37 by a telling margin. That gap in attacking output underpins Formatic's form rating, which gives the visitors a 5.5 out of 10 to the hosts' 4 out of 10, a 1.5-point advantage that reflects steadier rhythm as both sides shake off pre-season.

Real Sociedad B's only recent win came in a 4-0 friendly rout of PAU, but the bookends of that result tell a less flattering story: 1 clean sheet in 5, 7 conceded, and a 20 percent clean-sheet rate across their 6-match sample. The defence has leaked at least once in four of the last five, and the hosts' season profile shows 4.3 shots on target per game from 13.8 attempts, a conversion rate that has left them scoreless in half their fixtures. Possession sits below half at 48.8 percent, and the 4.5 corners per game trail Castellon's 7.3, suggesting less territorial control and fewer set-piece opportunities. The 1-1 home draw with Cultural Leonesa in May and the 1-3 loss at Albacete underline a side that has struggled to impose itself on Segunda División opponents when it matters.

Castellon's recent calendar has been entirely composed of friendlies, but the substance within those results offers encouragement. A 2-1 win at Valencia and a 3-3 draw at Girona featured 5 goals scored across two fixtures, while the 2-0 home victory over Sabadell delivered their sole clean sheet of the last 5. The 0-2 defeat at Alaves and the 2-3 loss to Almeria in competitive action show defensive fragility, yet the visitors' 16.5 shots per game and 5.5 on target per game in their season sample speak to persistent pressure. Their 56.3 percent possession average and 1.3 yellow cards per game point to a side that controls the ball without resorting to repeated fouling, a contrast with Real Sociedad B's 13.3 fouls per game and 2 yellows.

The head to head record across the last 4 meetings yields 1 win apiece and 2 draws, but the nature of those encounters is striking. Both teams have scored in all 4, and the meetings have averaged 4.75 goals, a figure driven by the extraordinary 5-4 Castellon win in November 2025 and Real Sociedad B's 4-2 home success in March 2026. The two draws, both 1-1, came in 2022 and 2023, suggesting the fixture has grown more open as both sides have evolved. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the 4, and the repeat failure of either defence to keep the other out hints at a contest shaped more by attacking quality than by rearguard discipline.

Real Sociedad B's home advantage is blunted by their patchy form and a failure to score in half their games, while Castellon's superior expected goals, possession and shots-on-target profile suggests they arrive better equipped to exploit the spaces this fixture has historically provided. The head to head pattern of goals at both ends and the visitors' steadier form rating point to a match where Castellon's attacking continuity will test a home defence that has kept just 1 clean sheet in 5 and conceded 7 in that span. The 1.5-point form gap and the underlying numbers favour the visitors to take something from a fixture that has rarely been settled by a single goal.