

Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.




Sabadell take a form score of 5.5 out of 10 into this Segunda Division fixture, against 4.3 for Almería. Sabadell have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Almería have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Sabadell average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Almería 0.9 and 1.2. Sabadell have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Almería in 40%. In their last 2 meetings Sabadell have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1. Sabadell sit 17th on 0 points, Almería 11th on 0.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Almería return to Segunda División action with a modest but tangible edge in recent rhythm, their weighted form score of 5.56 out of 10 sitting 1.78 points above Sabadell's 3.78 mark. That gap reflects what each side carried into the summer: the visitors closed their league campaign with four competitive fixtures in early June, grinding out 2 wins and 2 draws from a home-and-away sequence against Castellón and Malaga, while the hosts concluded their own season in the third-tier play-offs, posting 2 wins and 2 defeats across four knockout ties before the calendar flipped to pre-season friendlies.
Sabadell's play-off surge delivered some emphatic scorelines, including a 4-0 demolition of Zamora at home on 19 June and a 3-0 victory over Real Madrid II on 5 June, producing 8 goals across their last 5 outings with 4 conceded. They kept clean sheets in 2 of those 5 but also absorbed a 2-0 friendly reverse at Castellón on 18 July and a narrow 1-0 play-off defeat away to Zamora on 13 June, evidence of a patchy summer that began with competitive intensity and tapered into calibration mode. The 1-1 draw away to Espanyol on 25 July marks their most recent outing, a friendly result that underscores the light weight attached to recent preparation matches. Sabadell scored in 3 of their last 5, a figure that trails the attacking consistency shown by their opponents.
Almería managed 6 goals and conceded 5 across the same sample, with 4 of their last 5 featuring at least one goal for them and clean sheets claimed in 2 of the 5. Their competitive finish included a 3-2 home win against Castellón on 9 June, sandwiched between a goalless draw away to Malaga on 14 June and a 2-1 home defeat to the same side six days later. The visitors added a 1-0 friendly win at Águilas on 25 July, maintaining a scoring run into their most recent appearance. That thread of goals in 4 of 5 suggests a side capable of finding the net even when results have been mixed, a valuable trait in a fixture where both teams have historically obliged.
The two previous meetings between these clubs both cleared 2.5 goals and saw both teams score, combining for 3.5 goals per match. Sabadell fell 2-1 at home on 5 November 2020 before earning a 2-2 draw away on 24 January 2021, leaving Almería with 1 win from the pair and Sabadell still chasing a first victory in the series. That pattern of open exchanges aligns with Almería's recent profile of 6 scored and 5 conceded, though Sabadell's 8 scored and 4 conceded over their last 5 carries the caveat that half that sample consisted of third-tier play-off ties rather than Segunda División opposition. The form gap of 1.78, rooted in Almería's steadier late-season rhythm, points toward the visitors holding a narrow but measurable advantage as the new campaign begins, particularly if both sides reproduce the scoring consistency that has defined their head-to-head history and their recent results.
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