Santos enter this fixture 14th on 22 points, five places and two points clear of 19th-placed Mirassol, who have accumulated 20 points from 19 matches. The gap is narrow enough to make Sunday's outcome matter in the table, and the hosts carry notably better recent form into the meeting. Santos have registered a weighted last-five score of 6.22 out of 10, steady if unspectacular, while Mirassol's 4.44 marks them as patchy. That 1.78 gap in form assessment reflects contrasting trajectories since the last round of fixtures.

Santos have scored 11 goals across their last four outings, with defeats to none of their domestic opponents in that span. They drew 2-2 at home to Chapecoense in their most recent Brasileirao appearance on 25 July, either side of consecutive 4-1 and 4-2 victories over UCV in CONMEBOL Sudamericana. The only blemish in that sequence came in a 1-2 reverse away to Botafogo on 16 July. Santos have scored in every one of those four matches but have yet to keep a clean sheet in the same window, conceding 7. Over the full 20-match league campaign they have found the net 29 times at a rate of 1.45 per game, though they have shipped 33 at 1.65 per outing. Their eight-match sample across all competitions shows 15.6 shots per game, 6 on target, and 2.06 expected goals, with 53.4 percent possession and clean sheets in 22 percent of fixtures. They have failed to score in none of those eight.

Mirassol's last five have brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with four goals scored and four conceded. They held Vasco da Gama to 1-1 away on 25 July, following a 2-1 home win over Gremio on 17 July. Before that came consecutive 0-1 losses away to Atletico Paranaense on 30 May and Lanus in CONMEBOL Libertadores on 26 May, separated by a 1-0 home victory over Fluminense on 23 May. Mirassol have scored in three of those five and kept one clean sheet. Across 19 league matches they have managed 21 goals at 1.11 per game and conceded 26 at 1.37 per outing, leaving them one point adrift of safety. Their 10-match seasonal profile yields 11.7 shots per game, 3.9 on target, and 1.06 expected goals, with 47.7 percent possession, clean sheets in 20 percent of games and blanks in 20 percent.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings stands at four Santos wins, two for Mirassol and four draws, averaging 3.3 goals per fixture. Both teams have scored in eight of those 10, and over 2.5 goals has landed in eight of 10. The five most recent clashes include a 2-2 draw when Mirassol hosted on 11 March 2026, a 1-1 stalemate at Santos on 20 November 2025, Mirassol's 3-0 win on 19 July 2025, and Santos victories by 2-1 on 17 January 2025 and 3-2 on 12 October 2024. That pattern of open, high-scoring encounters aligns with Santos' failure to record a clean sheet in their last four and Mirassol's tendency to concede while occasionally finding the net themselves.

Santos' superior shot volume, possession share and expected goals total suggest they will create the clearer chances, and their current form edge of 1.78 points on a 10-point scale gives them a concrete platform. Mirassol arrive having managed only four goals across their last five, and their per-game expected goals figure of 1.06 is almost exactly half that of Santos. The hosts have scored 29 times in 20 league outings compared to Mirassol's 21 in 19, and with five of the last 10 head-to-heads producing over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in eight, the fixture has history on the side of an open contest. Santos' combination of better form, higher shot output and home advantage points toward a result that extends the gap between 14th and 19th, with the goals profile suggesting both sides may contribute to the scoreline.