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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 0-1
    South Africa
    South Africa
    DLDWL
    final
    0 - 1
    Canada
    Canada
    DWLWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    17%
    South Africa
    25%
    Draw
    58%
    Canada

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    15.62
    X3.70
    21.62

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Away Win@ 1.62
    Safer: Canada or draw at 1.13
    7/10
    Canada's superior GPG (1.6 vs 0.9) and marginally better form (4.44 vs 4.89) give them the edge. South Africa's 5.75 home odds reflect genuine weakness at this level.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.10
    6/10
    Predicted 3-goal total with both sides showing moderate defensive fragility. Canada averaging 1.6 GPG suggests they'll contribute multiple goals even if South Africa finds one.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 2.05
    6/10
    South Africa's 0.9 GPG at home gives them scoring capability despite overall weakness. Canada have conceded in most competitive fixtures, making both teams to score viable at 2.04.

    South Africa

    Form comparison

    Canada

    3.6
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.2
    Form score: South Africa 3.6, Canada 4.2
    0.90
    Goals scoredper game
    1.50
    Goals scored: South Africa 0.90, Canada 1.50
    1.20
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.90
    Goals conceded: South Africa 1.20, Canada 0.90

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5South Africa
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Canada2/5
    2/5South Africa
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Canada1/5
    0.9South Africa
    Goals For per game
    Canada1.5
    1.2South Africa
    Goals Against per game
    Canada0.9
    0South Africa
    Win Streakmatches
    Canada0
    Season averages • South Africa: 10 matches • Canada: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    South Africa
    South Africa
    Mixed3.6/10
    DLDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Canada
    Canada
    Mixed4.2/10
    DWLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 1L from South Africa's perspective
    • 28 Jun 2026South Africa0-1Canada
    South Africa
    South Africa
    Last 5 matches
    • 28 Jun 2026vsCanada0-1L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsSouth Korea1-0W
    • 18 Jun 2026vsCzechia1-1D
    • 11 Jun 2026vsMexico2-0L
    • 06 Jun 2026vsJamaica1-1D
    Canada
    Canada
    Last 5 matches
    • 04 Jul 2026vsMorocco0-3L
    • 28 Jun 2026vsSouth Africa0-1W
    • 24 Jun 2026vsSwitzerland2-1L
    • 18 Jun 2026vsQatar6-0W
    • 12 Jun 2026vsBosnia & Herzegovina1-1D

    South Africa vs Canada: form and season numbers

    South Africa take a form score of 3.6 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 4.2 for Canada. South Africa have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Canada have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season South Africa average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Canada 1.5 and 0.9. South Africa have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Canada in 50%. In their last 1 meeting South Africa have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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