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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 0-0
    Spain
    Spain
    WWWWW
    final
    0 - 0
    Argentina
    Argentina
    WWWWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    42%
    Spain
    32%
    Draw
    26%
    Argentina

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.25
    X3.00
    23.60

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    DC Spain/Draw@ 1.44
    7/10
    Spain at 10/10 form and historically strong at containing elite opponents in World Cup knockout matches. Argentina also 10/10, but Spain's record of controlling big matches favours Spain or draw.
    GoalsWin
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.60
    8/10
    Spain averaging 1.7 GPG, Argentina 2.9 GPG, but World Cup knockout matches between elite sides historically tight and tactical. Combined 2 goals fits the knockout stage profile.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 1.88
    7/10
    Both teams at peak form (10/10) and Argentina averaging 2.9 GPG suggests they'll find the net. Spain's 1.7 GPG and tournament momentum indicate they'll also score in a final between well-matched sides.

    Spain

    Form comparison

    Argentina

    10.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    6.7
    Form score: Spain 10.0, Argentina 6.7
    1.80
    Goals scoredper game
    2.40
    Goals scored: Spain 1.80, Argentina 2.40
    0.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.80
    Goals conceded: Spain 0.30, Argentina 0.80

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Spain
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Argentina0/5
    0/5Spain
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Argentina1/5
    1.8Spain
    Goals For per game
    Argentina2.4
    0.3Spain
    Goals Against per game
    Argentina0.8
    7Spain
    Win Streakmatches
    Argentina0
    Season averages • Spain: 10 matches • Argentina: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Spain
    Spain
    Excellent10.0/10
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Argentina
    Argentina
    Solid6.7/10
    WWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 0D - 0L from Spain's perspective
    • 19 Jul 2026Spain1-0Argentina
    • 27 Mar 2018Spain6-1Argentina
    Spain
    Spain
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-0W
    • 14 Jul 2026vsFrance0-2W
    • 10 Jul 2026vsBelgium2-1W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsPortugal0-1W
    • 02 Jul 2026vsAustria3-0W
    Argentina
    Argentina
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsSpain1-0L
    • 15 Jul 2026vsEngland1-2W
    • 12 Jul 2026vsSwitzerland3-1W
    • 07 Jul 2026vsEgypt3-2W
    • 03 Jul 2026vsCape Verde Islands3-2W

    Spain vs Argentina: form and season numbers

    Spain take a form score of 10.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 6.7 for Argentina. Spain have 5 wins in their last 5, while Argentina have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Spain average 1.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game, Argentina 2.4 and 0.8. Spain have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, Argentina in 40%. In their last 2 meetings Spain have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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