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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 3-0
    Spain
    Spain
    WWWWW
    final
    3 - 0
    Austria
    Austria
    WLDL
    how the market sees it finishing
    72%
    Spain
    19%
    Draw
    9%
    Austria

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.32
    X5.00
    210.00

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.32
    Safer: Spain or draw at 1.04
    8/10
    Spain's form advantage is substantial (8.22 vs 4.44) and they average 2.0 GPG in World Cup qualifiers. Austria's away form at 4.44/10 suggests vulnerability against elite opposition.
    GoalsWin
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.35
    7/10
    Spain typically control games without excessive scoring, 2.0 GPG home average. Austria's 1.78 GPG suggests limited attacking output, pointing to a controlled 2-3 goal match.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    No@ 1.66
    7/10
    Austria's poor away form (4.44/10) and Spain's defensive discipline in tournament football favor a clean sheet. BTTS No at 1.6 offers value against a struggling Austrian attack.

    Spain

    Form comparison

    Austria

    10.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.2
    Form score: Spain 10.0, Austria 2.2
    1.80
    Goals scoredper game
    1.78
    Goals scored: Spain 1.80, Austria 1.78
    0.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.22
    Goals conceded: Spain 0.30, Austria 1.22

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Spain
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Austria0/5
    0/5Spain
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Austria2/5
    1.8Spain
    Goals For per game
    Austria1.8
    0.3Spain
    Goals Against per game
    Austria1.2
    7Spain
    Win Streakmatches
    Austria0
    Season averages • Spain: 10 matches • Austria: 9 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Spain
    Spain
    Excellent10.0/10
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Austria
    Austria
    Poor2.2/10
    WLDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/4
    BTTS
    2/4
    Clean sheet
    0/4
    Scored in
    2/4
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from Spain's perspective
    • 02 Jul 2026Spain3-0Austria
    Spain
    Spain
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-0W
    • 14 Jul 2026vsFrance0-2W
    • 10 Jul 2026vsBelgium2-1W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsPortugal0-1W
    • 02 Jul 2026vsAustria3-0W
    Austria
    Austria
    Last 5 matches
    • 02 Jul 2026vsSpain3-0L
    • 28 Jun 2026vsAlgeria3-3D
    • 22 Jun 2026vsArgentina2-0L
    • 17 Jun 2026vsJordan3-1W

    Spain vs Austria: form and season numbers

    Spain take a form score of 10.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.2 for Austria. Spain have 5 wins in their last 5, while Austria have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Spain average 1.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game, Austria 1.8 and 1.2. Spain have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, Austria in 33%. In their last 1 meeting Spain have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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