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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 2-1
    Spain
    Spain
    WWWWW
    final
    2 - 1
    Belgium
    Belgium
    DWWWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    59%
    Spain
    24%
    Draw
    17%
    Belgium

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.62
    X3.90
    25.40

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.62
    Safer: Spain or draw at 1.14
    7/10
    Spain's dominant 9.56/10 form and home advantage in a World Cup knockout setting outweigh Belgium's 8.67/10 form. Spain's tournament pedigree and 1.78 GPG at home provides the edge in a tight match.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.80
    8/10
    Belgium averaging 3.3 GPG suggests attacking intent. Combined output of 5.08 GPG between both sides points to 3+ goals. World Cup knockout intensity typically produces goals.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.80
    7/10
    Belgium's elite 3.3 GPG away suggests they will find the net even in defeat. Spain conceding in recent matches despite strong form, knockout football produces open play.

    Spain

    Form comparison

    Belgium

    10.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    6.2
    Form score: Spain 10.0, Belgium 6.2
    1.80
    Goals scoredper game
    2.70
    Goals scored: Spain 1.80, Belgium 2.70
    0.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.00
    Goals conceded: Spain 0.30, Belgium 1.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Spain
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Belgium1/5
    0/5Spain
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Belgium1/5
    1.8Spain
    Goals For per game
    Belgium2.7
    0.3Spain
    Goals Against per game
    Belgium1.0
    7Spain
    Win Streakmatches
    Belgium0
    Season averages • Spain: 10 matches • Belgium: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Spain
    Spain
    Excellent10.0/10
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Solid6.2/10
    DWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from Spain's perspective
    • 10 Jul 2026Spain2-1Belgium
    Spain
    Spain
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-0W
    • 14 Jul 2026vsFrance0-2W
    • 10 Jul 2026vsBelgium2-1W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsPortugal0-1W
    • 02 Jul 2026vsAustria3-0W
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Jul 2026vsSpain2-1L
    • 07 Jul 2026vsUSA1-4W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsSenegal3-2W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsNew Zealand1-5W
    • 21 Jun 2026vsIran0-0D

    Spain vs Belgium: form and season numbers

    Spain take a form score of 10.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 6.2 for Belgium. Spain have 5 wins in their last 5, while Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Spain average 1.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game, Belgium 2.7 and 1.0. Spain have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, Belgium in 30%. In their last 1 meeting Spain have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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