Ajax arrive at this Eredivisie fixture having won all four of the most recent meetings with Telstar, a run that stretches back to December 2019 and includes a 3-2 victory at this venue in January 2026. Those four matches have averaged 4.0 goals, with both teams on the scoresheet in two of them and over 2.5 goals landing in half the sample. The head to head pattern points clearly in one direction, but Telstar did manage two goals in that most recent home fixture and also scored three in a 4-3 defeat in December 2019, evidence that they have found the net against these opponents even when losing.

Telstar's recent record offers a mixed picture. Across their last four outings they have won twice, lost twice, scored 9 and conceded 7, with clean sheets proving elusive in all four matches. They have scored in three of those four, showing some attacking output, but the defensive side has been consistently porous. Two of those defeats came in friendlies, a 1-0 loss at Sparta Rotterdam and a 2-1 reverse at Almere City, while the wins included a 6-3 thrashing of De Graafschap and a competitive 2-1 success at FC Volendam in May that closed their league campaign. Formatic's weighted form score of 4.67 out of 10 reflects that patchy nature, a side capable of scoring but short on consistency at the back. With 0 clean sheets from 4 and 7 conceded, the hosts have struggled to shut opponents out, a concern heading into a fixture against a side with Ajax's firepower.

Ajax, by contrast, have posted a form score of 9.11 out of 10, reflecting an excellent recent run. Over their last five matches they have won four, drawn one and lost none, scoring 9 and conceding just 3. They have found the net in all five outings and kept two clean sheets in the process, showing both attacking threat and defensive solidity. Their run includes a 4-1 win at Vojvodina in the UEFA Europa Conference League, sandwiched between friendly victories over Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0, Burnley 2-1 and AEK Larnaca 1-0, plus a 1-1 draw with VfL Bochum. The competitive outing at Vojvodina demonstrated their sharpness under match conditions, and the friendlies have been characterised by narrow margins and controlled performances. The form gap of 4.44 in Ajax's favour is substantial and underscores the visitors' superior momentum.

The goals profile reinforces the shape of this contest. Telstar have scored in three of their last four but conceded in all four, suggesting they offer routes to goal at both ends. Ajax have scored in five straight matches while keeping two clean sheets, a combination of relentless attack and measured defence. The head to head average of 4.0 goals per meeting hints at open fixtures when these sides collide, and with Telstar yet to record a shutout in four and Ajax unbeaten across five, the pattern points toward the visitors controlling proceedings. Ajax's perfect record in the last four encounters, combined with their current form and Telstar's defensive fragility, sets a clear expectation for how this fixture is likely to unfold.