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    World Cup · kickoff 01:00
    FT 1-4
    USA
    USA
    WWLWL
    final
    1 - 4
    Belgium
    Belgium
    DWWWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    34%
    USA
    29%
    Draw
    37%
    Belgium

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.75
    X3.25
    22.55

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    DNB Belgium@ 1.90
    7/10
    Belgium's superior form (7.78 vs 6.67) and attacking output (3.0 GPG vs 2.3) gives them the edge. DNB Away at 1.90 offers value over straight Away Win at 2.70 in a knockout World Cup match where USA's home crowd could force a draw.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.74
    8/10
    Combined 5.3 GPG between both teams suggests high-scoring affair. Belgium averaging 3.0 GPG and USA 2.3 GPG, knockout intensity typically produces goals in open World Cup matches between evenly-matched sides.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.57
    8/10
    USA's 2.3 GPG at home and Belgium's 3.0 GPG away suggests both will find the net. World Cup knockout matches between tier-2 sides rarely see clean sheets, attacking intent from both required.

    USA

    Form comparison

    Belgium

    4.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    6.2
    Form score: USA 4.7, Belgium 6.2
    2.20
    Goals scoredper game
    2.70
    Goals scored: USA 2.20, Belgium 2.70
    2.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.00
    Goals conceded: USA 2.00, Belgium 1.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5USA
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Belgium1/5
    0/5USA
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Belgium1/5
    2.2USA
    Goals For per game
    Belgium2.7
    2.0USA
    Goals Against per game
    Belgium1.0
    0USA
    Win Streakmatches
    Belgium0
    Season averages • USA: 10 matches • Belgium: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    USA
    USA
    Mixed4.7/10
    WWLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Solid6.2/10
    DWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 3L from USA's perspective
    • 07 Jul 2026USA1-4Belgium
    • 28 Mar 2026USA2-5Belgium
    • 01 Jul 2014Belgium2-1USA
    USA
    USA
    Last 5 matches
    • 07 Jul 2026vsBelgium1-4L
    • 02 Jul 2026vsBosnia & Herzegovina2-0W
    • 26 Jun 2026vsTürkiye3-2L
    • 19 Jun 2026vsAustralia2-0W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsParaguay4-1W
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Jul 2026vsSpain2-1L
    • 07 Jul 2026vsUSA1-4W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsSenegal3-2W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsNew Zealand1-5W
    • 21 Jun 2026vsIran0-0D

    USA vs Belgium: form and season numbers

    USA take a form score of 4.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 6.2 for Belgium. USA have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season USA average 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, Belgium 2.7 and 1.0. USA have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Belgium in 30%. In their last 3 meetings USA have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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