USL Dunkerque begin their Ligue 2 campaign on the back of a pre-season that yielded 8 goals across 4 friendlies, including victories over Standard Liege, Samsunspor and KVC Westerlo. The hosts found the net in all 4 warm-up matches and collected 3 wins despite a 1-2 reverse at Anderlecht in their opening outing. That run translates to an excellent weighted form score of 8 out of 10, the sharpest number in this contest and a platform few sides carry into a season opener. Clermont's preparation tells a different story, with just 1 win from 4 friendlies and a weighted form rating of 3.33 out of 10. The visitors managed 5 goals across those matches but scored in only 2 of the 4, falling silent in a 0-0 draw with Bourges Foot 18 and a 0-1 home loss to Montpellier last time out.

The form gap of 4.67 in Dunkerque's favour is substantial for a fixture between two sides who have shared the honours in recent seasons. The last 6 meetings produced 2 wins apiece and 2 draws, with 3.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 3 of those 6. Dunkerque claimed the points on their most recent home encounter, a 3-0 win in February 2025, and also took a 0-1 victory at Clermont in September 2024. Clermont's most recent triumph came in the February 2026 reverse fixture, a 2-1 success, while a 2-2 draw at Dunkerque in August 2025 and a 5-0 Clermont rout in January 2021 complete the documented sequence. Four of those 6 meetings cleared 2.5 goals, a pattern that sits at odds with Clermont's recent struggles in front of goal.

Dunkerque's defensive record in pre-season shows 4 goals conceded across 4 matches and 1 clean sheet, the shutout arriving in the 2-0 win over Standard Liege. Clermont conceded just 3 times in their warm-up schedule and kept one blank of their own, the goalless stalemate with Bourges, but the lack of attacking rhythm is the more pressing concern. The visitors managed only a single strike in each of their two scoring performances, the 1-1 draw with Quevilly and the 4-1 defeat of Andrézieux, and carried no momentum into the Montpellier loss that closed their preparations.

Formatic's model has not yet scored this fixture, with the assessment scheduled closer to kick-off, but the raw numbers point toward a side entering the season in sharp form facing opponents who sputtered through the summer. Dunkerque's ability to score in every pre-season outing contrasts with Clermont's intermittent output, and the hosts' home victories in the two most recent meetings at this venue add historical weight. The head-to-head totals suggest goals are likely, yet Clermont's current profile makes both teams scoring a less certain proposition than the 3-in-6 historical rate might imply. Whether the visitors can rediscover the attacking edge that brought them 5 goals against Dunkerque in 2021, or whether the hosts extend their recent dominance on home turf, will hinge on which version of Clermont arrives for the season's first whistle.