Under 4.5 Goals Predictions, Retired Line
Under 4.5 goals is the most conservative line in football betting, and we are not picking it any more. The goals card on the current engine chooses between Over and Under at 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5, because those are the lines where the model's scoreline grid still disagrees with the market often enough to be worth publishing. At 4.5 it does not: the vast majority of matches finish under five goals, the price already says so, and a line the model cannot argue with is not a pick, it is a formality. This page stays because the URL is indexed, because the settled Under 4.5 picks are still in the public log, and because the line is worth understanding: it is the one a lot of tipsters lean on to keep a hit rate looking healthy. Only 2 Under 4.5 picks have settled so far in our tracked record, and they stay in the public log on /stats exactly as they landed.
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Frequently asked
- Do you still pick Under 4.5?
- No. The goals card selects Over or Under at 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5, so nothing writes an Under 4.5 selection any more and this page will not fill up on a match day.
- Why was the 4.5 line dropped?
- Because the model and the market agree on it almost every time. The vast majority of matches finish under five goals and the price reflects that, so there is no disagreement left to publish. The 3.5 line still produces real disagreement, which is where the Under side of the goals card now stops.
- What's the Under 4.5 hit rate?
- Only 2 Under 4.5 picks have settled in our tracked record, too few to read a rate off, and there will be no more. Every one of them is listed on /stats.
- Where are the old Under 4.5 picks?
- Still published. Every settled pick stays in the record whatever market it was in, and the full log is downloadable as a CSV from the stats page, so the Under 4.5 rows can be filtered out and checked like anything else.